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Might We See the Next Lehman Scandal?

The Next Lehman Scandal?

According to a Daily Telegraph report, the world may be about to witness another epic crash, only five years after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.

The newspaper has reported that another market bubble is emerging. But the situation is different this time, primarily because most policy makers, investors and market analysts are already aware of the threat and its implications.

What is driving the threat?

The threat is being driven by junk bonds. More accurately known as high-yield debts, sales of these products have grown exponentially in 2013. Even in January, Asian companies that were rated as non-investment grade sold over  9 billion of the high-yielding bonds. The year-on-year increase stands at over 6,000 per cent according to recent figures gathered by Dealogic, the data analysts.

In Europe, a similar pattern is emerging, with sales figures for junk bonds running at record levels and with high-yield debt bonds worth almost $30 billion having already been sold in 2013.

What is prompting this?

The explosive demand for high-yield debt products has been largely driven by the way that western governments responded to the recent financial crisis. Since Lehman Brothers collapsed five years ago, an incredible  12 trillion has been pumped into the global economy by the world's central banks as part of a concerted effort to maintain historically low interest rates and to prop up failing banks.

The impact of this monetary policy and unprecedented stimulus has been to create a heady mix of rising inflation and historically low government bond yields; a situation which has forced the majority of investors  even those who might be considered extremely conservative   to look further afield for better returns and a means of preserving their eroding capital.

This has led to people who are largely resistant to taking on greater risk being forced further along the risk curve simply to get an acceptable yield. And into this mix has come worrying signs of rising investor leverage and signs of increasing speculation. The danger of a bubble in the junk-bond market is growing and this is evidenced by the banker's recruitment trade, a reliable indicator for many analysts.                                  
 
Only recently, RBS recruited the former head of high-yield US bonds from USB after announcing that it plans to lessen its investment banking activities. If banks are now making their money from risky bond sales, most will be able to imagine what is likely to happen next.
 
Written by Ross Stokes of Circle Square Talent - Investment Banking Jobs
 
 

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